The Sunday Night Football matchup in the final week of the 2024 NFL season features the Detroit Lions hosting the Minnesota Vikings at Ford Field. This Week 18 battle will decide who wins the NFC North and gets the No. 1 seed in the NFC. So, the stakes here are extremely high. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 18 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content. And come back next week for in-depth previews for all of the NFL playoff games.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Vikings vs. Lions
When: Sunday, January 5th at 8:20 pm ET
Where: Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan
Channel: NBC/Peacock
Vikings vs. Lions Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday, January 3rd. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Lions -2.5 (-120), Vikings +2.5 (+100)
Spread: Lions -148, Vikings +124
Total: Over 56.5 (-110), Under 56.5 (-110)
Vikings vs. Lions Analysis
Our DraftKings betting splits and Circa betting splits pages reveal some different things this week. At DraftKings, most of the action is on the Lions. However, while a majority of tickets have come in on Detroit at Circa, more of the money is seemingly on Minnesota. That suggests sharp action on the Vikings, and that’s at a sportsbook that many believe to be very sharp.
I’ll be siding with the pros in this game, but not strictly because I like being on their side. I just think Minnesota is better than Detroit right now.
Alex Anzalone is coming back for the Lions. That’s a big boost to the defense. But this is still a Detroit team that is missing several key starters, and Anzalone can’t mask the group’s deficiencies alone. That’s especially true against an elite play caller like Kevin O’Connell. This Minnesota offense has really been rolling lately, as the Vikings are ninth in the league in EPA per play (0.095) since Week 10. And it’s the team’s passing game, led by a red-hot Sam Darnold, that has been shredding opponents. So, with the Lions being extremely vulnerable in the secondary right now, I just don’t see Detroit’s defense getting off the field enough in this one. Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison should both terrorize the Lions corners in this game. And I don’t see Darnold throwing the same kinds of back-breaking interceptions that Brock Purdy threw in last week’s Lions-49ers Monday Night Football game.
Of course, Minnesota also has to find a way to get some stops. But this is the best EPA per play defense (-0.096) in the league. The Vikings are first in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.215), meaning they should be able to do a decent job of slowing down a David Montgomery-less Lions team. While Jahmyr Gibbs is incredible, Minnesota is disciplined and should be able to prevent him from hitting home runs — especially if he’s not making plays between the tackles. And the Vikings are also second in Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.038), so they can be trusted to get off the field enough against Jared Goff and this elite Lions passing game. I know Goff is awesome in home games, but Brian Flores always has some tricks up his sleeve. He’s going to get some pressure on Goff in this one, taking pressure off his own defensive backs.
I’m also interested in the fact that Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson seems very busy scoping out his next job. Will he be giving this specific game the attention it deserves when it comes to preparation? Perhaps that small detail will give Flores the slight nod in that defense-versus-offense coaching battle. The Vikings have also had a little extra time to rest and prepare anyway, as they played their Week 17 game on Sunday.
Vikings vs. Lions Player Props
Jordan Addison Anytime TD (+129)
Not only has Addison scored in back-to-back games, but he has also scored seven touchdowns over the last seven games. Defenses have no choice but to pay close attention to Jefferson, but Addison has proven to be unbelievable at creating separation and coming up with big plays. And he has a very strong connection with Darnold. With that in mind, I’m a little surprised plus-money odds are available for Addison to score a touchdown in a game with a total this high. I honestly think it’s worth taking a shot on him to score twice. His targets are way up compared to where they were earlier in the year, when he had just three catches for 66 yards on four targets against Detroit.
Vikings vs. Lions Pick
This is the only game I like in Week 18, which is why I didn’t do my usual best bets column. But I’m taking Minnesota with the points to win two units. I’m also risking a unit on the Addison prop. I’m at the point where I believe the Vikings are the best team in the NFC, as they’re getting high-level quarterback play from Darnold and have a great group of weapons surrounding him. Also, the defense is so well coached that a relative lack of talent — compared to other elite defenses — doesn’t seem to matter. I put a big premium on coaching, especially at this time of the year. And I’m just not sure how the Lions can be expected to beat the Vikings with so many key pieces out. If Detroit was as healthy as it was early in the season, this would be a different story.
Bet: Vikings +3 (-115) & Addison Anytime TD (+129)
