NHL Best Bets
It’s going to be a beautiful night in the NHL with four different elimination games across the board, two in the East and two in the West. All four games should be exciting; we could see some of these series end tonight. Let’s get into my NHL best bets.
Toronto at Boston (-166, 5.5)
From an outsider’s perspective, the morale in the Maple Leafs locker room appears to be in shambles. Personally, I don’t see Toronto overcoming a steaming-hot Jeremy Swayman. If you asked me right now who my pick for the Conn Smythe Trophy would be as the Stanley Cup Playoffs MVP, it would be Swayman.
The Boston Bruins goaltender has taken over the net after the team would typically alternate between him and Linus Ullmark, but if you’re Jim Montgomery, it has to be too difficult to take Swayman out of the net. Swayman has gone 3-0 in his three starts and has boasted a .956 save percentage and a 1.34 goals-against average. He also has a playoff best +8.5 goals saved above expected.
Another Bruins player that I would consider for the Conn Smythe (I’m aware that it’s insanely early to discuss this), but Brad Marchand has tallied three goals and five assists for eight points in four games. Marchand has more points than Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews, and John Tavares combined.
One of the biggest factors in this series has been the special teams. The Bruins’ power play is clicking at 46.2% and their penalty kill is at 92.9%. These numbers are incredible. Boston has scored on a power play goal in every game and have converted on six of their 13 overall attempts. On the other hand, Toronto’s special teams have been a complete embarrassment. Their power play has scored once on 14 attempts and is at 7.1%, while their penalty kill is only at 53.9%. That’s a joke.
Boston has been the better team in this series. They let a 3-1 first-round series lead slip away last year, and I don’t see that happening again. They will end it tonight.Â
NHL Best Bet: Boston Bruins to win in regulation +110 (play to -110)
Nashville at Vancouver -118, 5.5
The life may have been sucked out of the Nashville Predators after their Game Four loss on home ice as they let a two-goal lead slip away in the final three minutes of regulation before falling in overtime against the Vancouver Canucks. This series now heads back to Vancouver, where the Canucks have an opportunity to close out a series on home ice, a position that this current team has never been in before.
It had been nine years since the Canucks had played a game at home in the playoffs before this series. Even if you think the pressure is on Nashville tonight, it’s really on Vancouver. The Canucks know they have a chance to put this thing away, and in the back of their minds, they know if they lose and have to go back to Nashville for Game 6, it’s going to be incredibly tough.
In my opinion, the Predators have been the better team in this series. They haven’t gotten what they deserve after dominating Games Three and Four. Both teams have had a hard time scoring goals, but there hasn’t been a game in this series yet that Juuse Saros has stolen. Tonight could be that game.
Saros’ save percentage has not been pretty. He’s currently at a .859 save percentage, but he’s only allowing 2.52 goals against per game. Vancouver has had a hard time generating offense as they’re only averaging 18 shots on goal per game, the Predators have smothered them.
Nashville will need their captain and best player, Roman Josi, to step up and have himself a game tonight to keep this thing going.
The Canucks haven’t announced their starter at the time of writing this, but my feeling is that they go back to Arturs Silovs, who got his first career start in Game Four. Can he sustain it? He didn’t even play that well. Silovs made 27 saves on 30 shots and had a 3.05 goals against average with a -0.8 goals saved above expected.
Not only do I think Nashville will win, but I think this series will see a Game Seven.
NHL Best Bet: Nashville Predators ML -102 (play to -115)
April Record: 23-16 (+3.94 units)
2023-24 record: 152–148 (-26.80 units)
