In most daily sports, the rest a team gets and the routines regarding scheduling play an important role in how well they play from day to day. Naturally, the level of fatigue a team faces can have a huge impact on the effort level it brings to the field, court, or for this article, the ice. I have made tracking these scheduling scenarios and comparing the situations of two teams in any given hockey game a key part of my handicapping routine.
It proved be a very fruitful exercise in the 2022-23 season and has continued in the early part of this season, as you’ll see below as I have been tracking and regularly sharing the qualifying plays for four NHL Scheduling Scenarios that have produced definitive results. I believe they all have foundation to them as well, which I will explain, and should get stronger as the season wears on and fatigue/routine becomes a bigger issue. I again reveal upcoming matchups in which these scenarios will be in play in the near future for you to capitalize on.
** Note the upcoming games mentioned cover contests played through the first week of January
NHL Scheduling Scenario System #1
NHL road teams playing on the standard one-day rest scenario were 371-362 for +51.5 units of profit (7.0% R.O.I.) in the 2022-23 season, so long as the home opponent wasn’t on extended rest (3+ Days). So far this season (through Monday, 12/18), they are 110-125 for -6.46 units.
Steve’s thoughts: The one-day rest scenario is the most common scheduling situation in the NBA and NHL, so it figures to bring the greatest amount of routine into play. Essentially, this is when a team plays one day (or night), is off the next, then plays the following day again. This has slowed somewhat this season in terms of being a very strong spot for road teams. However, the deeper we get into a season, the more fatigue sets in and the more crucial routine becomes. I’ll continue to track this angle, but at this point, I wouldn’t disagree with using discernment on some games rather than playing this system every time it comes up.
Upcoming games for system #1 (Road team is listed first in the matchup)
Tuesday, December 19
VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS — One Day
CAROLINA HURRICANES — One Day
VANCOUVER CANUCKS — One Day
NASHVILLE PREDATORS — Two Days
COLORADO AVALANCHE — One Day
CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS — One Day
OTTAWA SENATORS — One Day
ARIZONA COYOTES — Two Days
Wednesday, December 20
DETROIT RED WINGS — One Day
WINNIPEG JETS — One Day
SEATTLE KRAKEN — One Day
LOS ANGELES KINGS — A2H b2b
Thursday, December 21
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS — One Day
BUFFALO SABRES — One Day
ST. LOUIS BLUES — One Day
FLORIDA PANTHERS — Two Days
EDMONTON OILERS — One Day
NEW JERSEY DEVILS — One Day
NASHVILLE PREDATORS — One Day
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS — One Day
CAROLINA HURRICANES — One Day
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS — Two Days
VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS — One Day
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING — One Day
VANCOUVER CANUCKS — One Day
DALLAS STARS — Two Days
OTTAWA SENATORS — One Day
COLORADO AVALANCHE — One Day
ARIZONA COYOTES — One Day
SAN JOSE SHARKS — One Day
Saturday, December 23
VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS — One Day
FLORIDA PANTHERS — One Day
DALLAS STARS — One Day
NASHVILLE PREDATORS — One Day
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS — One Day
COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS — One Day
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS — One Day
OTTAWA SENATORS — One Day
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING — One Day
WASHINGTON CAPITALS — One Day
BUFFALO SABRES — One Day
NEW YORK RANGERS — H2H b2b
ARIZONA COYOTES — One Day
COLORADO AVALANCHE — One Day
CALGARY FLAMES — One Day
LOS ANGELES KINGS — Two Days
SAN JOSE SHARKS — One Day
VANCOUVER CANUCKS — One Day
Friday, December 29
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS — One Day
COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS — One Day
NASHVILLE PREDATORS — One Day
DETROIT RED WINGS — One Day
NEW YORK RANGERS — One Day
FLORIDA PANTHERS — One Day
NEW JERSEY DEVILS — One Day
OTTAWA SENATORS — One Day
WASHINGTON CAPITALS — One Day
NEW YORK ISLANDERS — One Day
CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS — One Day
DALLAS STARS — One Day
COLORADO AVALANCHE — One Day
ST. LOUIS BLUES — One Day
ARIZONA COYOTES — One Day
ANAHEIM DUCKS — One Day
Saturday, December 30
MONTREAL CANADIENS — One Day
FLORIDA PANTHERS — H2H b2b
CAROLINA HURRICANES — One Day
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS — A2H b2b
EDMONTON OILERS — One Day
LOS ANGELES KINGS — One Day
Sunday, December 31
NEW YORK ISLANDERS — One Day
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS — H2H b2b
CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS — One Day
DALLAS STARS — One Day
Tuesday, January 2
BOSTON BRUINS — One Day
COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS — Two Days
MONTREAL CANADIENS — One Day
DALLAS STARS — One Day
CALGARY FLAMES — One Day
MINNESOTA WILD — One Day
CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS — One Day
NASHVILLE PREDATORS — Two Days
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING — One Day
WINNIPEG JETS — One Day
NEW YORK ISLANDERS — One Day
COLORADO AVALANCHE — One Day
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS — One Day
EDMONTON OILERS — One Day
DETROIT RED WINGS — One Day
SAN JOSE SHARKS — One Day
Thursday, January 4
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS — One Day
BOSTON BRUINS — One Day
CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS — One Day
NEW YORK RANGERS — One Day
COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS — One Day
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS — One Day
COLORADO AVALANCHE — One Day
DALLAS STARS — One Day
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING — One Day
MINNESOTA WILD — One Day
CALGARY FLAMES — One Day
NASHVILLE PREDATORS — One Day
NEW YORK ISLANDERS — One Day
ARIZONA COYOTES — One Day
DETROIT RED WINGS — One Day
LOS ANGELES KINGS — One Day
WINNIPEG JETS — One Day
SAN JOSE SHARKS — One Day
Saturday, January 6
CALGARY FLAMES — One Day
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS — One Day
FLORIDA PANTHERS — One Day
COLORADO AVALANCHE — One Day
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING — One Day
BOSTON BRUINS — One Day
ST. LOUIS BLUES — One Day
CAROLINA HURRICANES — A2H b2b
MINNESOTA WILD — One Day
COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS — One Day
NEW YORK RANGERS — One Day
MONTREAL CANADIENS — One Day
VANCOUVER CANUCKS — One Day
NEW JERSEY DEVILS — H2H b2b
BUFFALO SABRES — One Day
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS — One Day
NASHVILLE PREDATORS — One Day
DALLAS STARS — One Day
NEW YORK ISLANDERS — One Day
VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS — One Day
Sunday, January 7
WINNIPEG JETS — One Day
ARIZONA COYOTES — Two Days
NHL Scheduling Scenario System #2
NHL home teams playing on the standard one-day rest scenario were 164-124 for +17.8 units of profit (6.2% R.O.I.) in the 2022-23 season when matched against a road team NOT in that scenario. In 2023-24 so far, they have gone 48-41 for +1.11 units.
Steve’s thoughts: While 17.8 units of profit and an R.O.I. of 6.2% aren’t earth-shattering betting numbers for these home teams, they are quite impressive when you consider the overall loss incurred by backers of hosts overall last season. So far this season, through Monday, December 18, hosts in all other scenarios have lost 17.78 units. Again, I must point out that the one-day rest scenario is the most common scheduling situation, so players get comfortable with their preparation routine. With very definitive home advantageous situations, this is one to watch for.
Upcoming games for system #2 (Home team is listed second in the matchup)
Tuesday, December 19
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS — Two Days
NEW JERSEY DEVILS — One Day
LOS ANGELES KINGS — Two Days
SAN JOSE SHARKS — One Day
Thursday, December 21
WASHINGTON CAPITALS — H2A b2b
COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS — One Day
MONTREAL CANADIENS — Two Days
MINNESOTA WILD — One Day
Friday, December 22
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS — H2A b2b
DETROIT RED WINGS — One Day
BOSTON BRUINS — Two Days
WINNIPEG JETS — One Day
Saturday, December 23
NEW YORK ISLANDERS — Two Days
CAROLINA HURRICANES — One Day
BOSTON BRUINS — A2A b2b
MINNESOTA WILD — One Day
DETROIT RED WINGS — H2A b2b
NEW JERSEY DEVILS — One Day
SEATTLE KRAKEN — Two Days
ANAHEIM DUCKS — One Day
CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS — H2A b2b
ST. LOUIS BLUES — One Day
Friday, December 29
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS — A2A b2b
SEATTLE KRAKEN — One Day
Sunday, December 31
BOSTON BRUINS — H2A b2b
DETROIT RED WINGS — One Day
BUFFALO SABRES — H2A b2b
OTTAWA SENATORS — One Day
EDMONTON OILERS — A2A b2b
ANAHEIM DUCKS — One Day
SAN JOSE SHARKS — Two Days
COLORADO AVALANCHE — One Day
CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS — One Day
DALLAS STARS — One Day
Tuesday, January 2
WASHINGTON CAPITALS — Two Days
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS — One Day
Thursday, January 4
BUFFALO SABRES — 3+ Days
MONTREAL CANADIENS — One Day
Friday, January 5
CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS — A2A b2b
NEW JERSEY DEVILS — One Day
CAROLINA HURRICANES — Two Days
WASHINGTON CAPITALS — One Day
WINNIPEG JETS — A2A b2b
ANAHEIM DUCKS — One Day
Saturday, January 6
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS — Two Days
SAN JOSE SHARKS — One Day
Sunday, January 7
CALGARY FLAMES — A2A b2b
CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS — One Day
LOS ANGELES KINGS — Two Days
WASHINGTON CAPITALS — One Day
DETROIT RED WINGS — Two Days
ANAHEIM DUCKS — One Day
NHL Scheduling Scenario System #3
Strangely, NHL home teams playing on a two-day rest scenario were just 142-141 for -56.93 units of loss (-20.1% R.O.I.) in the 2022-23 season. Through Monday, December 18, they had gone 60-51 for -5.85 units.
Steve’s thoughts: This system shows how just a slight altering of routine can affect a team, even at home. It’s not often in any sport in which bettors can fade such a simple system as this that shows a full-season loss of over 20% R.O.I. Oftentimes, these home teams are overpriced a touch because of the extra rest, when in fact, that factor is actually not advantageous.
Upcoming games for system #3 (Play against home teams listed second in matchup)
Tuesday, December 19
MINNESOTA WILD — A2A b2b
BOSTON BRUINS — Two Days
ST. LOUIS BLUES — Two Days
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING — Two Days
COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS — Two Days
BUFFALO SABRES — Two Days
NEW YORK RANGERS — Two Days
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS — Two Days
EDMONTON OILERS — Two Days
NEW YORK ISLANDERS — Two Days
VANCOUVER CANUCKS — One Day
NASHVILLE PREDATORS — Two Days
OTTAWA SENATORS — One Day
ARIZONA COYOTES — Two Days
Wednesday, December 20
NEW YORK ISLANDERS — H2A b2b
WASHINGTON CAPITALS — Two Days
Thursday, December 21
ST. LOUIS BLUES — One Day
FLORIDA PANTHERS — Two Days
CAROLINA HURRICANES — One Day
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS — Two Days
VANCOUVER CANUCKS — One Day
DALLAS STARS — Two Days
CALGARY FLAMES — Two Days
ANAHEIM DUCKS — Two Days
Friday, December 22
EDMONTON OILERS — A2A b2b
NEW YORK RANGERS — Two Days
MONTREAL CANADIENS — A2A b2b
CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS — Two Days
Saturday, December 23
CALGARY FLAMES — One Day
LOS ANGELES KINGS — Two Days
Saturday, December 30
MINNESOTA WILD — Two Days
WINNIPEG JETS — Two Days
COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS — H2A b2b
BUFFALO SABRES — Two Days
NEW JERSEY DEVILS — A2A b2b
BOSTON BRUINS — Two Days
ST. LOUIS BLUES — H2A b2b
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS — Two Days
NEW YORK RANGERS — A2A b2b
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING — Two Days
Monday, January 1
VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS — 3+ Days
SEATTLE KRAKEN — Two Days
Tuesday, January 2
BOSTON BRUINS — One Day
COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS — Two Days
CAROLINA HURRICANES — Two Days
NEW YORK RANGERS — Two Days
CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS — One Day
NASHVILLE PREDATORS — Two Days
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS — Two Days
LOS ANGELES KINGS — Two Days
Wednesday, January 3
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS — A2A b2b
ANAHEIM DUCKS — Two Days
Thursday, January 4
OTTAWA SENATORS — One Day
SEATTLE KRAKEN — Two Days
FLORIDA PANTHERS — One Day
VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS — Two Days
Sunday, January 7
WINNIPEG JETS — One Day
ARIZONA COYOTES — Two Days
NHL Scheduling Scenario System #4
NHL home teams playing on back-to-back days scenario against road teams that did not play at home the day prior are just 70-75 for -28.87 units of loss (-29% R.O.I.) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
Steve’s thoughts: The reason for this ugly system on home teams is simply fatigue. There is a reason that back-to-back scenarios are such a major focus when the NHL schedule is released in early summer each year. The fatigue factor outweighs any type of home-ice advantage. On top of that, most teams in back-to-back scenarios turn to their No. 2 goalie for that contest.
Upcoming games for system #4 (Fade all home teams listed second in the matchup)
Wednesday, December 20
SEATTLE KRAKEN — One Day
LOS ANGELES KINGS — A2H b2b
Saturday, December 23
BUFFALO SABRES — One Day
NEW YORK RANGERS — H2H b2b
Thursday, December 28
MONTREAL CANADIENS — 3+ Days
CAROLINA HURRICANES — A2H b2b
EDMONTON OILERS — 3+ Days
SAN JOSE SHARKS — A2H b2b
Saturday, December 30
MONTREAL CANADIENS — One Day
FLORIDA PANTHERS — H2H b2b
CAROLINA HURRICANES — One Day
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS — A2H b2b
NASHVILLE PREDATORS — A2A b2b
WASHINGTON CAPITALS — A2H b2b
Sunday, December 31
NEW YORK ISLANDERS — One Day
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS — H2H b2b
MONTREAL CANADIENS — A2A b2b
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING — H2H b2b
Wednesday, January 3
NEW JERSEY DEVILS — 3+ Days
WASHINGTON CAPITALS — A2H b2b
Saturday, January 6
ST. LOUIS BLUES — One Day
CAROLINA HURRICANES — A2H b2b
VANCOUVER CANUCKS — One Day
NEW JERSEY DEVILS — H2H b2b
Summary
These scheduling systems prove that NHL betting isn’t just a matter of picking the better team in a matchup. The rigors of playing an 82-game season on numerous different scheduling scenarios take their toll. Therefore, it’s important to recognize the teams’ strengths in a game and how their rest or fatigue might have them physically and/or mentally prepared for any contest. I will try to continue to post these plays regularly. However, since these are just single game-to-game scheduling situations, it should prove easy to qualify on your own with just the simple aid of a day-to-day NHL schedule.