In most daily sports, a team’s rest and the routines regarding scheduling play an important role in how well they play from day to day. Naturally, the level of fatigue a team faces can have a huge impact on the effort level it brings to the field, court, or for the purposes of this article, the ice. I have made tracking these scheduling scenarios and comparing the situations of two teams in any given hockey game a key part of my handicapping routine. It is proving to be a fruitful exercise again in the 2022-23 season, as you’ll see from these NHL Scheduling Scenarios that have produced definitive results thus far. I believe they all have a foundation to them as well, which I will explain. As an added bonus, I will also reveal upcoming matchups in which these scenarios will be in play in the near future for you to take advantage.
NHL Scheduling Scenario System #1
NHL road teams playing on equal rest as their opponent hosts are 181-181 for +15.56 units of profit in the 2022-23 season in games through Wednesday, January 18th.
Steve’s thoughts: The value of home ice in the NHL has diminished greatly in recent years. Aside from some specific franchises that continue to enjoy tremendous home ice performance (Boston, Toronto, Tampa Bay), bettors would be wise to consider the value that road teams inherit from oddsmakers by the establishment of home ice vigorish. A .500 won-lost record system producing over 4% profit on something as simple as recognizing two teams last played on the same day is not something to overlook. It doesn’t get much simpler than that. Oh, and by the way, the host teams in this system have lost -54.2 units for backers, an R.O.I. of -15%.
Upcoming games for system #1
Thursday, January 19, 2023
Winnipeg Jets One Day
Toronto Maple Leafs One Day
Chicago Blackhawks One Day
Philadelphia Flyers One Day
Florida Panthers One Day
Montreal Canadiens One Day
Anaheim Ducks One Day
Columbus Blue Jackets One Day
Washington Capitals One Day
Arizona Coyotes One Day
Friday, January 20, 2023
Ottawa Senators One Day
Pittsburgh Penguins One Day
Colorado Avalanche One Day
Vancouver Canucks One Day
Saturday, January 21, 2023
Arizona Coyotes One Day
Dallas Stars One Day
Carolina Hurricanes One Day
New York Islanders One Day
Los Angeles Kings One Day
Nashville Predators One Day
Philadelphia Flyers One Day
Detroit Red Wings One Day
Toronto Maple Leafs One Day
Montreal Canadiens One Day
Anaheim Ducks One Day
Buffalo Sabres One Day
Chicago Blackhawks One Day
St. Louis Blues One Day
Minnesota Wild One Day
Florida Panthers One Day
Washington Capitals One Day
Vegas Golden Knights One Day
Sunday, January 22, 2023
Vegas Golden Knights Home/Away Back-to-Back
Arizona Coyotes Away/Home Back-to-Back
Los Angeles Kings Away/Away Back-to-Back
Chicago Blackhawks Away/Home Back-to-Back
Winnipeg Jets Away/Away Back-to-Back
Philadelphia Flyers Away/Home Back-to-Back
Monday, January 23, 2023
Buffalo Sabres One Day
Dallas Stars One Day
Columbus Blue Jackets One Day
Calgary Flames One Day
New York Islanders One Day
Toronto Maple Leafs One Day
Tuesday, January 24, 2023
Los Angeles Kings One Day
Philadelphia Flyers One Day
Vegas Golden Knights One Day
New Jersey Devils One Day
Minnesota Wild Two Days
Tampa Bay Lightning Two Days
Washington Capitals Two Days
Colorado Avalanche Two Days
Wednesday, January 25, 2023
New York Rangers One Day
Toronto Maple Leafs One Day
Thursday, January 26, 2023
Detroit Red Wings One Day
Montreal Canadiens One Day
New Jersey Devils One Day
Nashville Predators One Day
Philadelphia Flyers One Day
Minnesota Wild One Day
Pittsburgh Penguins One Day
Washington Capitals One Day
St. Louis Blues One Day
Arizona Coyotes One Day
Anaheim Ducks One Day
Colorado Avalanche One Day
Boston Bruins One Day
Tampa Bay Lightning One Day
Buffalo Sabres One Day
Winnipeg Jets One Day
NHL Scheduling Scenario System #2
NHL road teams playing on the standard one-day rest scenario have gone 199-190 for +28.09 units of profit (7.2% R.O.I.) in the 2022-23 season in games through Wednesday, January 18th, regardless of the home opponents scheduling situation.
Steve’s thoughts: The one-day rest scenario is the most common scheduling situation for teams in the NBA and NHL, so it figures to bring the greatest amount of routine into play. Essentially, this is when a team plays one day (or night), is off the next, then plays the following day again. This has been a very strong spot for road teams, and figures to continue as such as we get deeper into the 2022-23 season where rest/fatigue become bigger factors. For the record, the home teams going against the road teams in this one-day rest scenario have lost 66.58 units, for an R.O.I. of -17.1%.
Upcoming games for system #2
Thursday, January 19, 2023
Winnipeg Jets One Day
Toronto Maple Leafs One Day
Minnesota Wild One Day
Carolina Hurricanes 3+ Days
Chicago Blackhawks One Day
Philadelphia Flyers One Day
Florida Panthers One Day
Montreal Canadiens One Day
Anaheim Ducks One Day
Columbus Blue Jackets One Day
Nashville Predators One Day
St. Louis Blues Two Days
Washington Capitals One Day
Arizona Coyotes One Day
Detroit Red Wings One Day
Vegas Golden Knights Two Days
Friday, January 20, 2023
Ottawa Senators One Day
Pittsburgh Penguins One Day
Colorado Avalanche One Day
Vancouver Canucks One Day
Saturday, January 21, 2023
Arizona Coyotes One Day
Dallas Stars One Day
Carolina Hurricanes One Day
New York Islanders One Day
Edmonton Oilers One Day
Vancouver Canucks Home/Home Back-to-Back
Los Angeles Kings One Day
Nashville Predators One Day
Philadelphia Flyers One Day
Detroit Red Wings One Day
Toronto Maple Leafs One Day
Montreal Canadiens One Day
Anaheim Ducks One Day
Buffalo Sabres One Day
Chicago Blackhawks One Day
St. Louis Blues One Day
Minnesota Wild One Day
Florida Panthers One Day
Tampa Bay Lightning One Day
Calgary Flames Two Days
Washington Capitals One Day
Vegas Golden Knights One Day
Winnipeg Jets One Day
Ottawa Senators Away/Home Back-to-Back
Sunday, January 22, 2023
Pittsburgh Penguins One Day
New Jersey Devils Two Days
Monday, January 23, 2023
Buffalo Sabres One Day
Dallas Stars One Day
Columbus Blue Jackets One Day
Calgary Flames One Day
Florida Panthers One Day
New York Rangers 3+ Days
New York Islanders One Day
Toronto Maple Leafs One Day
Tuesday, January 24, 2023
Boston Bruins One Day
Montreal Canadiens Two Days
Chicago Blackhawks One Day
Vancouver Canucks Two Days
Los Angeles Kings One Day
Philadelphia Flyers One Day
San Jose Sharks One Day
Detroit Red Wings Two Days
Vegas Golden Knights One Day
New Jersey Devils One Day
Winnipeg Jets One Day
Nashville Predators Two Days
Wednesday, January 25, 2023
New York Rangers One Day
Toronto Maple Leafs One Day
Columbus Blue Jackets One Day
Edmonton Oilers 3+ Days
New York Islanders One Day
Ottawa Senators 3+ Days
Thursday, January 26, 2023
Detroit Red Wings One Day
Montreal Canadiens One Day
New Jersey Devils One Day
Nashville Predators One Day
Philadelphia Flyers One Day
Minnesota Wild One Day
Pittsburgh Penguins One Day
Washington Capitals One Day
St. Louis Blues One Day
Arizona Coyotes One Day
Anaheim Ducks One Day
Colorado Avalanche One Day
Boston Bruins One Day
Tampa Bay Lightning One Day
Buffalo Sabres One Day
Winnipeg Jets One Day
Chicago Blackhawks One Day
Calgary Flames Two Days
NHL Scheduling Scenario System #3
NHL home teams playing on the standard one-day rest scenario have gone 84-64 for +8.78 units of profit (5.9% R.O.I.) in the 2022-23 season in games through Wednesday, January 18th, when matched against a road team not in that scenario.
Steve’s thoughts: While 8.78 units of profit and an R.O.I. of 5.9% aren’t earth shattering betting numbers for these home teams, they are quite impressive when you consider the overall loss incurred by backers of hosts overall in 2022-23, as described somewhat in system #1. Again, I must point out that the one-day rest scenario is the most common scheduling situation, so players get comfortable with their preparation routine. With very definitive home advantageous situations, this is one to watch for.
Upcoming games for system #3
Thursday, January 19, 2023
New York Islanders Home/Away Back-To-Back
Buffalo Sabres One Day
Tampa Bay Lightning Away/Away Back-To-Back
Edmonton Oilers One Day
New Jersey Devils Two Days
Seattle Kraken One Day
Saturday, January 21, 2023
Colorado Avalanche Away/Away Back-To-Back
Seattle Kraken One Day
San Jose Sharks Two Days
Columbus Blue Jackets One Day
Tuesday, January 24, 2023
Florida Panthers Away/Away Back-To-Back
Pittsburgh Penguins One Day
Anaheim Ducks Two Days
Arizona Coyotes One Day
Wednesday, January 25, 2023
Carolina Hurricanes 3+ Days
Dallas Stars One Day
NHL Scheduling Scenario System #4
NHL home teams playing that are well rested, or playing in the 3+ Days rest scenario have gone 36-19 for +18.17 units of profit (33% R.O.I.) in the 2022-23 season in games through Wednesday, January 18th, regardless of the road opponent’s scheduling scenario.
Steve’s thoughts: Again, taking away the overall lack of success by home teams in 2022-23, this is obviously a very potent scenario to consider when wagering. Home teams that have been off for 3+ days seem to have fully taken advantage of the rest period to rejuvenate. This is a scheduling scenario in which being at home is advantageous, and it stems not just from gameday, but the rest period prior as well. Road teams in this scenario are -22.34 units for an R.O.I. of -40.6%.
Upcoming games for system #4
Thursday, January 19, 2023
Minnesota Wild One Day
Carolina Hurricanes 3+ Days
Dallas Stars Away/Away Back-To-Back
Los Angeles Kings 3+ Days
Monday, January 23, 2023
Florida Panthers One Day
New York Rangers 3+ Days
Wednesday, January 25, 2023
Vancouver Canucks Home/Away Back-To-Back
Seattle Kraken 3+ Days
Columbus Blue Jackets One Day
Edmonton Oilers 3+ Days
New York Islanders One Day
Ottawa Senators 3+ Days
NHL Scheduling Scenario System #5
NHL home teams playing on back-to-back days game scenario are 6-0 for +7.3 units of profit (121.7% R.O.I.) in the 2022-23 season in games through Wednesday, January 18th, when matched against a road team that played the prior day at home.
Steve’s thoughts: Obviously there are travel advantages associated with this one. Playing at home on the second of back-to-back games is a lot more comfortable for players than having to travel late the night before and arrive in a road city in a rushed fashion. Road teams that have played in this scenario so far this season have yet to win, and obviously, when considering the relationship to system #1 earlier, these six losses and their negative units could be backed out of the overall record for an even greater profit margin/percentage. This system doesn’t occur that often but here are the remaining season games in which it will be in play, assuming no changes to the schedule occur. You can see that the first opportunity is set for this coming Sunday.
Upcoming games for system #5
Sunday, January 22, 2023
Vegas Golden Knights Home/Away Back-To-Back
Arizona Coyotes