NHL Predictions – Expert Picks on Monday, March 3:
Here are tonight’s NHL predictions:
Ottawa Senators at Washington Capitals (-145, 5.5)
6:30 p.m. ET
The Caps are in the thralls of their first three-game losing streak of the season and have lost all three games in regulation. Ottawa is coming off a 5-3 win over the San Jose Sharks on Saturday, scoring four third-period goals to snap a five-game losing streak. Tonight is the third and final meeting between the two teams, with the road team winning both games in Overtime. In fact, the last three times, five of the last seven have gone past sixty minutes.
Alexander Ovechkin sits 10 goals shy of breaking Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goal record (894). Ovi scored twice against the Sens this season and has 38 goals in 59 games in his career versus Ottawa. Ovechkin is not the only Capitals player I have my eye on. Tom Wilson has four goals in his last five games and five goals in 10 games against Sens starting goalie Linus Ullmark.
Ottawa’s Tim Stutzle is riding an 11-game point streak and a 10-game assists streak, and he is available to record an assist tonight at “plus money.” The Caps have given up three goals or more in 10 straight games. Both the first-period Over (1.5 goals) and full game Over have cashed in on eight of the last 10 Washington games. Ottawa has gone Over (full game) in eight of their last nine games
NHL Predictions: 1st Period over 1.5 goals (-120) – 1 unit
Ottawa/Washington over 5.5 (-120) – 1unit
Ovechkin anytime goal (+110) – 1 unit
Ovechkin last goal (+700) – ¼ unit
Ovechkin over 4.5 SOG (+205) – ½ unit
Ovechkin over 3.5 SOG (-113) – 1.5 units
Tom Wilson anytime goal (+230) – ¼ unit
Tim Stutzle over ½ assist (+100) – ½ unit
Ottawa Senators TT over 2.5 (-120) – 1 unit
New York Islanders at NY Rangers (-115, 5.5)
7 p.m. ET
This game opened with the Rangers as a (-125) home favorite, and we are seeing the line move to the Islanders despite the Rangers taking in 79% of the bets and 78% of the money. I’m not sure how to explain the line move, considering the Rangers have won both meetings against their in-state rival this season, including a 5-1 setback last Tuesday. The Rangers have outscored the Islanders 10-3 in their two meetings this season. Take it back even further, the Rangers have won three straight, five of six, and six of the last eight against the Isles. The Rangers have scored five or more goals in four of their last five wins against the Islanders. I am not buying the line move and will be on the Rangers today and will take them on the Puck Line (-1.5 goals) as well as their team total Over 3.5 goals. The Rangers have covered the puck line and scored at least four goals in each of their last three wins. Mika Zibanejad has four assists in the two games against the Islanders this season and has six assists in his last six games overall. The Rangers’ Jonny Brodzinski has three goals in five games against Ilya Sorokin, who gets the start tonight for the Islanders.
NHL Predictions: Mika Zibanejad over ½ assist (+126) – ¼ unit
Jonny Brodzinski anytime goal (+600) – ¼ unit
Artemi Panarin anytime goal (+175) – ¼ unit
Rangers TT over 3.5 (+135) – 1 unit
Rangers -1.5 goals (+220) – 1 unit
San Jose Sharks at Toronto Maple Leafs (-355, 6.5)
7:30 p.m. ET
We have some great systems plays and trends in this matchup tonight. In games with a favorite of (-300+), a goal has been scored in the first ten minutes (GIFT) in 33 of the 53 games. The Leafs are on an 18-3 “GIFT” run. The underdog has scored a first-period goal in 31 of the 53 games with a favorite of (-300+). The Sharks have scored a first-period goal in ten of their last 13 games. The Leafs have given up a first-period goal in four straight games, 16 of their last 20 overall. When you focus just on the second half of back-to-backs, the Leafs have surrendered a first-period goal in seven straight and ten of eleven. Auston Matthews, who finally scored a goal past a goalie, has 12 goals in 13 career games against San Jose. San Jose’s Will Smith has an assist in three straight games, and Macklin Celebrini has had four or more shots on goal in three of his last four games.
NHL Predictions: Sharks over ½ goal 1st period (-110) -1 unit
1st Period BTTS (+162) – ½ unit
Macklin Celebrini over 3.5 SOG (+134) – 1 unit
Will Smith over ½ assist (+210) – ¼ unit
Auston Matthews anytime goal (-120) – ¼ unit