NHL Predictions – Expert Picks on Saturday, March 15:
Here are tonight’s NHL predictions:
Washington Capitals (-250, 6.5) at San Jose Sharks
5 p.m. ET
The Capitals are coming off a 3-0 shutout on Thursday at the hands of the Los Angeles Kings. Alexander Ovechkin was held to without a shot on goal for the first time since the opening game of the season. Ovechkin had just four shifts in the third period and sat the final 4:33 as the Kings completely smothered Ovechkin and the Capitals offense. With the Caps being shut out in their previous game, our system play of a goal to be scored in the first 10 minutes of the game is in effect. At its current price of -175, I am going to wait a few minutes and hope we don’t get a goal and play this “live” at a better price.
I don’t anticipate “The Great 8” to be held without a shot on goal today. On average, the Sharks have surrendered the third most shots on goal (31.6) in the NHL this season. Ovi has been held without a goal in back-to-back games to start the Capitals’ current road trip. Only twice this season has he gone through three consecutive games without a goal (Oct 12,15,17 and Jan 6,8,10). He has scored 16 goals in 28 career games against the Sharks.
It’s not all about Ovechkin today. San Jose’s Will Smith is on a five-game point streak. Collin Graf has goals in back-to-back games and points in four of his last five. The Sharks have scored three or more goals in six of their last eight games, while Washington has given up three or more goals in 13 of their last 16 games and in each of their last three games off a loss. Capitals projected starting goalie Logan Thompson has surrendered three or more goals in five of his last six starts.
NHL Predictions: Ovechkin ATG (+100) – ½ unit
Ovechkin last goal (+800) – ¼ unit
Ovechkin Over 3.5 SOG (-135) – 1 unit
Ovechkin Over 4.5 SOG (+168) – ¼ unit
Sharks TT over 2.5 (-108) – ½ unit
Will Smith Over ½ point (-106) – ¼ unit
Colin Graff Over ½ point (+170) – ¼ unit
Goal 1st 10 (-155 or better, live line) – 1unit
Tampa Bay Lightning (-180, 5.5) at Boston Bruins
7 p.m. ET
Tampa has dropped three straight and will look to avoid their third four-game losing streak of the season when they visit the Boston Bruins tonight. The Lightning have been outscored 11-4 during their recent woes. The Bruins have won the past two meetings over Tampa, including a 4-0 win at Tampa just seven days ago.
I don’t have any interest in playing “the side” or total for the full game. Instead, I will focus on playing Tampa to win the first period, as well as some player props. Tampa’s Jake Guentzel has seven goals in 12 games against the Bruins’ projected starter, Jeremy Swayman. Brandon Hagel has four goals in seven games against the Bruins netminder. I am also going to take a stab at a Gage Goncalves anytime goal. The Tampa forward has goals in back-to-back games. Boston’s David Pastrnak has 15 goals in 27 games against Andrei Vasilevskiy. Cole Koepke has a pair of goals against Vasilevskiy.
NHL Predictions: Jake Guentzel ATG (+130) – ¼ unit
Brandon Hagel ATG (+200) – ¼ unit
David Pastrnak ATG (+120) – ¼ unit
Cole Koepke ATG (+750) – ¼ unit
Gage Goncalves ATG (+700) – ¼ unit
Cam Atkinson ATG (+800) -1/4 unit
Tampa 1st period -1/2 goal (+155) – 1 unit
Ottawa at Toronto (-140, 5.5)
7 p.m. ET
The Ottawa Senators are on a roll, winners of five straight and six of their last seven overall. Ottawa has also owned the Maple Leafs in recent meetings, winning four straight (both meetings this season) and five of the last six. Despite not playing the final six minutes of their last game, Travis Green has said Brady Tkachuk is good to go. Tkachuk has points in eight straight games. Tim Stutzle has points in 16 of his 17 games, and from my colleague @tepicks, Claude Giroux has points in 11 of his last 12 games against Toronto. Newly acquired Dylan Cozens has earned a point in all four games with his new team.
I will pass on playing either side but will lean to the draw. The Senators have gone past regulation in three of their last six games, and Toronto has played “free hockey” in four of their last eight games.
NHL Predictions: Regulation Draw (+320) – ¼ unit
Dylan Cozens Over ½ point (+128) – ¼ unit
Claude Giroux Over ½ point (+128) – ¼ unit
Tim Stutzle/Brady Tkachuk Over ½ point each parlay (+154) – ½ unit
Shane Pinto anytime goal (+450) – ¼ unit
Carolina Hurricanes (-170, 5.5) at Philadelphia Flyers
7 p.m. ET
I am not interested in laying a big price with the Hurricanes on the road but will target the Canes team total Over 3.5 goals. Carolina has scored four or more goals in 29 of their 40 wins this season, and getting their team total at “plus money” has value. Two player props that I do like. The Flyers’ Travis Konecny has four goals in four games versus Canes starting goalie, Pyotr Kochetkov. Carolina’s Jordan Martinook has two goals in two games against the Flyers Samuel Ersson.
NHL Predictions: Canes TT Over 3.5 (+116) – 1 unit
Travis Konecny anytime goal (+240) – ¼ unit
Jordan Martinook anytime goal (+490) – ¼ unit
New York Rangers (-135, 6) at Columbus Blue Jackets
7 p.m. ET
The Jackets were blanked their last time out by the Vegas Golden Knights, 4-0 and fit our system play of a goal in the first ten minutes for a team being shut out in their last game. The last time these two teams met, Columbus thumped the Rangers 7-3 behind three goals from Adam Fantilli. Fantilli’s success against the Rangers has been against Jonathan Quick. Tonight, the Jackets will face Igor Shesterkin. Columbus will counter with Danill Tarasov.
New York’s Vinny Trocheck has four assists this season against Columbus, and the Jackets’ Justin Danforth has four goals in six games against the Rangers. We cashed with Danforth last time out against the Blue Shirts.
NHL Predictions: Vincent Trocheck Over ½ assist (+162) – ¼ unit
Justin Danforth anytime goal (+650) – ¼ unit
Goal 1st 10/Yes (-155) – 1 unitBest of the Rest: All ¼ unit plays
Zack Bolduc (STL) anytime goal (+440)
Jake Neighbours (STL) Over ½ assist (+144)
Blues/Wild Regulation Draw (310)
Quinton Byfield anytime goal (+290)
Fillip Chytil (Van) anytime goal (+290)
Ilya Mikheyev (Chic) anytime goal (+550)
Quinn Hughes Over 1.5 points (+200)