It feels like the tennis season never slows down, but that’s a great thing for bettors. This sport offers all sorts of betting opportunities, which is why I’m going to provide you with tennis best bets as often as possible throughout the 2025 season. Over the next two weeks, the ATP and WTA Tours stop at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden in Indian Wells, California. This venue is known as “Tennis Paradise” and many consider this 1000-level event to be the fifth slam. That said, all of the top players are in the fields this week, making this a tournament you won’t want to miss. With that in mind, keep reading for my Indian Wells best bets for Thursday, March 6th. I’ll include some of my favorite plays below, but make sure you also monitor the picks page throughout the day. Gill Alexander posts his best bets there. I’ll also occasionally add plays based on how lines are moving.
2025 Record: 300-273-1 (+3.51 units)
Jenson Brooksby vs. Benjamin Bonzi
Brooksby used a protected ranking to get into the main draw this week, and he has to be feeling pretty great about that right now. It’s no given that the American is going to win this opening-round matchup, but Bonzi has lost three straight matches — with two coming against Challenger-level talents. Bonzi also happens to be a player that really has nothing outside of a big serve and forehand. He doesn’t move around the court very well, and he’s a liability in longer rallies. Well, he’s probably going to see a bunch of those, as the conditions in Indian Wells are slow and Brooksby is tremendous when it comes to counter-punching and extending rallies.
If Brooksby can just dial things in with his serve a little bit, he should have a real shot at winning this match. And Bonzi isn’t much of a returner, so I don’t see the Frenchman consistently putting pressure on Brooksby’s serve — even in returner-friendly conditions.
Bet: Brooksby ML (-110)
Giulio Zeppieri vs. Adam Walton
I’m taking a chance on Zeppieri to win this match. The Italian played some good tennis in qualifying, beating Chun Hsin Tseng and Mikhail Kukushkin in straight sets. Now, Zeppieri takes on Walton in playing conditions that really don’t suit the Australian all that well. Walton, like Bonzi, is a player that does most of his damage with his serve and his forehand. He’s not exactly one to out-last opponents or win matches with sound point construction. So, with the slow conditions neutralizing his power a bit, Walton could be in trouble.
I can see Zeppieri having some success as a returner in this match. And within the rallies themselves, Zeppieri’s big, topspin forehand should trouble Walton quite a bit. Zeppieri just needs to try and remain calm throughout the course of the match. He is prone to having some mental lapses out there, which is why he hasn’t accomplished much at this point in his career. But it should help that he’s not facing a big name player on the other side of the net. Zeppieri is going to feel like he should win this match.
Bet: Zeppieri ML (+138)
Jacob Fearnley vs. Joao Fonseca
Arthur Rinderknech vs. Nuno Borges
One of my favorite plays for Thursday is a two-leg parlay that calls for Fonseca to beat Fearnley and Borges to beat Rinderknech. Fearnley is a player that I have backed a lot. He’s a good athlete that possesses a pretty solid all-court game, and he can be quite dangerous when he’s really feeling it. However, we have seen Fearnley struggle with players with bigger weapons, and Fonseca definitely has those. I’m just not sure I see Fearnley consistently going big enough to hit through Fonseca, but the Brazilian is going to have no problems finding winners — even with the slower, higher bounces in the desert. I also believe Fonseca is a better server than his opponent, so I like his chances of pulling this one out.
In the other match, it’s hard to see how Rinderknech is going to bother Borges. Rinderknech has lost four of his last five matches and seven of the nine matches he has played since the start of the new season. He’s really struggling to find his game. And like some of the other players I’m fading this week, Rinderknech really doesn’t have much outside of his serve. Well, Borges is a really solid returner, and he’s a much better baseliner than Rinderknech. In the end, that should be enough for him to win this one.
PARLAY: Fonseca ML & Borges ML (-122 – 1.5 units)
