Some of the top tennis players in the world are in Miami Gardens, Florida for the 2025 Miami Open. This is the second part of the Sunshine Double. Last week, the tour was stationed at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, and these two 1000-level events have always been looped together. This week, players are hoping to do some damage on hard courts before switching over to clay. I genuinely can’t wait to see how it all unfolds. This has already been a crazy tournament and I’ll continue providing you with daily tennis best bets throughout. Keep reading for my picks for Thursday, March 27th.
Jakub Mensik vs. Arthur Fils
It’s going to be worth monitoring our VSiN betting splits page coming into this match. Something tells me we’re going to see a lot of public support for Fils, who is quickly turning into a fan favorite and just earned a massive win over Alexander Zverev. However, Fils was cramping up pretty bad in a win over Frances Tiafoe a few days ago, and his back was really bothering him in the win over Zverev. That said, the young Frenchman is having some trouble physically in South Beach, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s unable to play his best tennis in this one. He’s not even going to have 24 hours of rest before first ball. Meanwhile, Mensik didn’t have to play a fourth-round match, as Tomas Machac withdrew from the tournament before the two Czechs were set to face off. With that in mind, Mensik is going to have a huge advantage in the rest department here.
Mensik also happens to be one hell of a player, so don’t make the mistake of thinking I’m strictly fading Fils based on the spot. Mensik has a massive first serve, an elite backhand and the ability to really overwhelm opponents with his overall power along the baseline. And when the 19-year-old is hitting his forehand well, he can beat pretty much anyone. We saw that with him beating Indian Wells champion Jack Draper in straight sets in the Round of 64. Mensik also eliminated Casper Ruud at the Australian Open, and he has been quite good against top-10 opponents overall.
I just don’t think that a banged-up Fils should be expected to go out there and beat Mensik, who has the ability to make matches extremely physical. There’s not much that separates these players on a good day, and people are going to learn that the more they watch Mensik play.
Bet: Mensik ML (-110 – 1.5 units)
Quick Notes – Berrettini vs. Fritz / Paolini vs. Sabalenka
The other men’s match on the Thursday schedule features Matteo Berrettini taking on Taylor Fritz. I have Berrettini to win Quarter 2 at +750 odds, which I gave out in my Miami Open tournament futures story. I won’t personally be hedging this one, as I think the Italian has a really good shot at winning in this thing. He has been better than Fritz since the start of the 2025 season. I also like the way his slice backhand works on these courts, and his forehand will be the biggest weapon in this match. Of course, Fritz is 4-0 against Berrettini in his career, which is why I’d completely understand anybody that opts to hedge. However, those matches were played in favorable situations for Fritz. This is probably the first time Berrettini is the one in better form, and I absolutely loved the fight I saw from the Italian in a win over Alex de Minaur last match.
There’s also a women’s semi-final match on Thursday, with Aryna Sabalenka facing Jasmine Paolini. This is another matchup in which I have a nice future, as I risked 1.5 units on Sabalenka to win this tournament at +350 odds. I don’t necessarily see Paolini pulling off this upset, but I am risking 0.75 units to win 3.75 units on the Italian to win at +500 odds. Honestly, it just won’t cut too much into my winnings, so it feels like the smart thing to do. There’s also a chance I’ll hedge the final as well. There should be a great price available no matter who Sabalenka potentially faces.
