Mutua Madrid Open best bets for Wednesday, May 1st
It feels like the tennis season never slows down, but that’s a great thing for bettors. This sport offers all sorts of betting opportunities, which is why I’m going to provide you with tennis best bets as often as possible. And that continues with a run of clay-court tournaments over the next couple of months. Over the next week, the biggest ATP and WTA tournaments are in Spain, as the top players in the world compete in a 1000-level event. The Mutua Madrid Open is one of the most exciting tournaments of the year, so make sure you tune in for some of the action. Below you’ll find some of my tennis best bets for Wednesday, May 1st.
I’d also strongly suggest coming back to this story throughout the day. I try to write up as many matches as I can in advance, but it’s hard to do that in an international sport. I also like to throw in some Challenger-level bets. That said, I’ll probably be adding picks to the bottom of the story. I’ll also throw them on the Pro Picks page.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
2024 Record: 246-260 (+28.69 units)
Mirra Andreeva vs. Aryna Sabalenka – Madrid
This feels like a serious trap from the oddsmakers. Casual bettors are going to see a two-time Madrid champion — and two-time Grand Slam champion — at reasonable odds and jump on her. But I generally like to go the other way in situations like this, and I also happen to think Andreeva plays a difficult brand of tennis for Sabalenka. Andreeva is very similar to Coco Gauff in that she can cover the court at an elite level, forcing opponents to play a lot of extra balls. Well, Sabalenka has had some trouble with Gauff in the past, as the American gets a lot of unforced errors out of her. And Andreeva should be able to do the same.
Andreeva is also a world-class returner, so she’ll put pressure on Sabalenka’s serve. And her baseline game continues to get better and better. The 17-year-old already has one of the best backhands on tour, and she has gotten a lot better from the forehand side. Andreeva is also really good at redirecting pace, so she’ll have an answer for Sabalenka’s raw power. And the youngster might have an advantage in the point construction department, which is crazy for a player with so little experience. She thinks the game at a remarkably high level, and that will serve her well here.
I know Sabalenka beat Andreeva in straight sets in Madrid in 2023, but it’s hard to take head-to-head into consideration with a player this young. She’s just improving rapidly and she’s not the same player today as she was 12 months ago. Also, Sabalenka hasn’t been in great form over the last couple of weeks. That said, I’m playing Andreeva to win a set. I’m also putting a little on the moneyline. This young star’s breakthrough is coming very soon and I think it might be here.
Bet: Andreeva +1.5 Sets (-140 – 1.5 units) & Andreeva ML (+175 – 0.5 units)
Added Plays
David Goffin ML (-125 – 2 units) vs. Alexander Shevchenko [Aix en Provence Challenger]
Aleksandar Kovacevic ML (-110 – 1.5 units) vs. Valentin Vacherot [Aix en Provence Challenger]
Mirjam Bjorklund +1.5 Sets (-133 – 1.5 units) vs. Camila Osorio [Lleida Challenger]
Mirjam Bjorklund ML (+235 – 0.5 units) vs. Camila Osorio [Lleida Challenger]
Brandon Holt ML (-111 – 2 units) vs. Yu Hsiou Hsu [Guangzhou Challenger]
Mark Lajal ML (+138) vs. Maxime Cressy [Guangzhou Challenger]
