Makinen’s Top 5 & Longshots for Today’s Race
Steve Makinen, VSiN’s resident NASCAR expert, has posted his final simulation for today’s Daytona 500.
Steve always includes some commentary for me along with his email confirmation that the simulation has been uploaded to VSiN.com:
After all the on-track activity over the last few days, the final simulation has Austin Cindric pegged as the frontrunner for the season’s first race. He won this race a few years ago as a rookie.
William Byron of Hendrick Motorsports is the projected runner-up. Cindric’s Penske Racing teammate Joey Logano is third, followed by Bubba Wallace and Kyle Larson to round out the top 5.
Anything can and will happen on Sunday, so typically the starting spot and practice speeds don’t prove to be that important. That said, I do expect polesitter Chase Briscoe to be a huge factor in the race and to be upfront often. He is one of the main underdogs I am considering.
This is my new top 5, favorite longshots and favorites that could struggle:
- Top 5: Logano (+1100), Cindric (+1800), Byron (+1600), Briscoe (+2500), Blaney (+1100).
- Top longshots (+1800 or higher): Cindric (+1800), Briscoe (+2500), Beuscher (+2500), Stenhouse (+3000), Erik Jones (+3500).
- Favorites to struggle: Hamlin, Keselowski, Bowman, Reddick.
FYI: Because rain is in the forecast for later in the day, NASCAR officials moved the race up an hour, to 1:30 p.m. ET (Fox).
ICYMI: Steve’s NASCAR season preview and the methodology behind his race simulations.
Today in College Basketball
First, let’s look at yesterday.
Contestants in the Circa College Hoops Challenge went 1-5 on the big Alabama-Auburn tilt, won by the Tigers (+2) 94-85 with the Total going Over 172.
Defending champion David Dineen leads after the opening round with a 5-0 record. >Standings.
Greg Peterson has posted his Best Bets for today’s menu.
Listen now: Greg’s daily podcast handicapping every game on the menu every day.
Adam Burke will post his top plays later this morning.
>Makinen’s power ratings with estimated scores
>DraftKIngs/Circa Betting Splits.
Quick Hits
NHL: In a game that featured three fights in the first nine seconds, Team USA (-108) beat Canada (-112) 3-1 on Saturday to advance to Thursday’s championship game in the 4 Nations Face-Off. Play resumes Monday with Canada needing to win in regulation to earn the other spot in the finals.
NBA: Although he has no official play, Zach Cohen explains the new format for tonight’s All-Star Game and how you could handicap the proceedings if you are so inclined. >>Scroll down this story.
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