Ready for Primetime
Texas-based pro handicapper Paul Stone, a frequent VSiN guest for many years, has a commanding four-point lead in the Circa College Hoops Challenge heading into the Sweet 16.
Today, Paul and the 14 other contestants will submit their six selections in time to announce them on VSiN Primetime (7-10 p.m. ET). Coincidentally, tonight’s Primetime hosts, Tim Murray and Jonathan Von Tobel, are in second in a four-way tie with fellow host Matt Youmans and VSiN contributor Aaron Moore.
Paul is probably best known as a college football expert, so I was curious about his college hoops success this season.
I’ve always handicapped college basketball at some level, but have really intensified my focus and efforts in the last few years. College basketball is such a grind with so many ups and downs over the course of a five-month season.
(Circa oddsmaker) Nick Bogdanovich has always said you need a revolver and a bottle of whiskey to bet baseball on a daily basis and I feel the same way about college basketball. You’ve truly got to be able to take a punch to bet this sport day-in and day-out.
The last few seasons I’ve done fairly well during the long regular season, but had mostly subpar results in the NCAA Tournament. This season I got on a little heater around the middle of February and have pretty much sustained it to this point in the Tournament.
As far as the Circa College Hoops Challenge, I feel like I’ve had a good read on a lot of the games, but I’ve also been fortunate on a couple of the outcomes. I’ve got a little bit of a lead, but I’m not resting easy. There’s still 12 selections remaining and I’ve been doing this long enough to know how quickly the tables can turn.
College football is certainly the sport that most sports bettors associate me with. My general approach to handicapping college basketball is the same as college football: I’m always trying to get the best of the number with my process somewhat tilted towards identifying underdogs. Situational handicapping and scheduling dynamics also play a role.
OK, let’s hope I don’t mush Paul by writing about him.
All the contest picks will be posted here on VSiN.com (for VSiN Pro subscribers) after VSiN PrimeTime.
Speaking of contests, if you are registered for the VSiN March Bracket Challenge, you can enter your Sweet 16 picks now. The deadline is: 6:30 p.m. ET on Thursday. >>Standings.
Sweet 16 line moves
Let’s look at how the numbers at Circa have changed in the 24 hours since I wrote yesterday’s email:
Thursday
>No. 6 BYU (+5/176 from +5.5/175.5) vs. No. 2 Alabama (7:09 p.m. ET). Preview
>No. 4 Maryland (+6.5/158 from +6.5/156.5) vs. No. 1 Florida (7:39 p.m. ET). Preview
>No. 1 Duke (-9/153.5 from -9.5/153.5) vs. No. 4 Arizona (9:39 p.m. ET). Preview
>No. 3 Texas Tech (-5.5/148 from -5.5/147) vs. No. 10 Arkansas (10:09 p.m. ET). Preview
Friday
>No. 6 Michigan State (-3.5/143.5 from -2.5/144.5) vs. No. 2 Mississippi (7:09 p.m. ET). Preview
>No. 2 Tennessee (-4.5/144.5 from -4.5/145.5) vs. No. 3 Kentucky (7:39 p.m. ET). Preview
>No. 1 Auburn (-8.5/154 from -8.5/152.5) vs. No. 5 Michigan (9:39 p.m. ET). Preview
>No. 1 Houston (-7.5/132.5 from -8.5/132.5) vs. No. 4 Purdue (10:09 p.m. ET). Preview
More movement than I would expect.
Best Bets & Picks
A chalky tournament doesn’t bode well for Dave “Mr. Dog or Pass” Tuley, but he is ready with his Sweet 16 Takes.
Steve Makinen has posted his Analytics Report and makes his Sweet 16 recommendations.
If you can’t wait until Thursday for your college basketball action, Greg Peterson has NIT Quarterfinal picks for today.
>Circa/DraftKings Betting Splits.
Quick Hits
MLB: The season begins Thursday. Adam Burke previews every team with his prediction on the season win total.
Golf: Wes Reynolds has his Best Bets for the Houston Open and joins Matt Brown and Kelley Bydlon on the Long Shots podcast. >>Watch / >>Listen.
NBA: Zach Cohen will have his plays later this morning.
NHL: Jonathan Davis will have his Best Bets later, too.
Tennis: Zach has posted his plays for today’s action at the Miami Open.
Horse Racing: 1/ST BET handicapper Jeremy Plonk offers his picks for today’s Gulfstream card. 1/ST Bet offers wagering on hundreds of races every day from across the country and around the world. Sign up at 1STBET.COM with promo code VSIN200 to claim a 20% rebate for your first 60 days, up to $200.
This is The VSiN Daily newsletter for Wednesday, March 26. Sign up for this free email and get picks and insights delivered to your in-box every morning.
