VSiN’s Matt Devine is back with his seventh annual Super Bowl prop piece.
Matt’s six-year record is 55-32 (63.2%, +9.15 units) and he is due for a bounce back. He gave back 12 units last year with a 4-8 record.
Matt’s prop betting system is based on probability and value. For example, one prop he recommends is Yes on “Will the game be decided by exactly 11 points,” which has implied odds of +1049 based on the fact that it has happened twice in the last 23 Super Bowls but the current odds are +3000.
Matt’s system generated 15 props that reached his threshold for placing a wager.
>>Bonus material: The story includes a link to a spreadsheet that tracks the results of 275 prop bets for the last 23 Super Bowls, as well as a breakdown of Square results for all four quarters of those games.
A prop with tentacles
Today’s reader prop submission is from Dave Vermeer, who owns a popular Mexican restaurant in Sandpoint, Idaho.
Dave makes the case for “Yes on the Octopus” at +1350. (An octopus is when the same player scores a TD followed by the 2-point conversion for eight points.)
Writes Dave:
>The Eagles are tied for second in the NFL for the most successful 2-point conversions.
>Saquon Barkley can score at will, it seems, from the 2-yard line. If there is a penalty, it will be from the 1 and we all know how successful the Eagles are when they need 1 yard.
>Jake Elliott is 2 for 4 on extra points in the playoffs and looked shaky on 1 of the 2 he made. Whether he misses one or Nick Sirianni doesn’t trust him in certain situations, I think Philadelphia goes for 2 at some point.
>Even if Philadelphia misses on that 2-point conversion, it may cause KC to have to go for 2 at some point during the game as well.
For his contribution, Dave will get a Omaha Steaks Gourmet Certificate valued at over $275.
More background: The octopus has only happened once in the last 23 Super Bowls (implied probability of ‘+2199), according to Matt Devine’s aforementioned spreadsheet. But the Eagles’ Jalen Hurts is the one who did it, two years ago. And if it makes anyone feel better, VSiN host Pauly Howard has a Best Bet on the octopus.
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>The VSiN Super Bowl Betting Guide is ready for VSiN Pro subscribers. >>Download here.
Everything else we do on the Super Bowl (that isn’t in the guide) will be posted here.
That includes the best prop bets from VSiN’s hosts and writers.
VSiN Pro subscribers should check the NFL Picks page for more than 175 Super Bowl bets referenced on the air over the last week and a half.
Today in College Hoops
Greg Peterson has posted his Best Bets for today’s menu.
Adam Burke will post his top plays later this morning.
Josh Appelbaum will file his Sharp Report on today’s games.
>Makinen’s power ratings with estimated scores
Listen now: Greg’s daily podcast handicapping every game on the menu every day.
Quick Hits
Golf: Wes Reynolds handicaps the traditionally raucous Phoenix Open.
NBA: Zach Cohen‘s Best Bets will be posted later this morning.
NHL: Look for Jonathan Davis‘ picks later today.
Horse Racing: 1/ST BET handicapper Jeremy Plonk has his top plays for today’s Gulfstream card.
This is The VSiN Daily newsletter for Wednesday, February 5. Sign up for this free email and get picks and insights delivered to your in-box every morning.
