Steve Makinen is VSiN’s ultimate source of betting trends, systems and power ratings.
And by the time the Super Bowl rolls around, he has collected a lot of data.
You can sift through his Super Bowl-specific trends and systems here and his season-long systems based on the betting splits and power ratings here.
But I took the easy way out. As I have during the playoffs, I fed all Steve’s data into an AI program (Chat GPT) and asked for the top plays.
Here is what Chat GPT spit out, citing Steve’s numbers:
Best Bet: Eagles +1.5 or Eagles Moneyline
>Underdog Success: Underdogs are 13-4 ATS in the last 17 Super Bowls and 17-6 ATS (73.9%) in the last 23. The team with the better playoff seed (Chiefs, No. 1) is just 2-16-2 ATS (11.1%) in the last 27 Super Bowls.
>Regular-Season Statistical Trends: While offensive edges have historically been misleading, defensive advantages have mattered more in recent years. The Eagles have superior numbers in defensive passing yardage allowed, pass efficiency, and overall defensive yardage, all of which have correlated with past Super Bowl success.
Over/Under: Lean Under 48.5
>Recent Super Bowl Under Trends: The Under is 5-1 in the last six Super Bowls, and totals in the 40s are on a 7-2 Under run.
>Both Teams with Strong Defenses: If the game follows the pattern of recent defensive battles, it could stay under the total.
6-Point Teaser: Eagles up to +7.5 with an Under 54.5 (since the total is 48.5)
>Eagles +7.5: Kansas City has played close games all season, and in a game expected to be competitive, getting over a touchdown (7.5) is a strong value. Additionally, 6-point teasers on Super Bowl underdogs have hit at an 87% rate (20-3) over the last 23 years.
>Under 54.5: Given how both teams like to control the game with strong defenses and clock management, teasing the total up and taking the Under adds value.
Prop Bets to Consider:
>Philadelphia Time of Possession Edge: Teams winning this category are 39-16-3 ATS (70.9%).
>Jalen Hurts Rushing Yards Over: Mobile QBs tend to run more in the Super Bowl.
>Kansas City Turnover Prop: The Eagles forced more turnovers in the regular season.
OK, it’s me again.
During the playoffs, I have used AI to parse Steve’s data. Strangely enough, Steve’s human opinion hasn’t always been in sync.
This Super Bowl isn’t one of those occasions: Steve is bullish on the Eagles.
>>Read his Best Bets on the side, total and props.
Postscript: I plan to talk to my Chat GPT about giving me a lean on the Total. Take a stand!
More Super Bowl resources
Everything we do on the Super Bowl will be posted here, including the best prop bets from VSiN’s hosts and writers.
ICYMI: VSiN’s Matt Devine has his seventh annual Super Bowl prop piece.
VSiN Pro subscribers should check the NFL Picks page for more than 200 Super Bowl bets referenced on the air over the last week and a half.
Today in College Hoops
Greg Peterson has posted his Best Bets for today’s menu.
Adam Burke will post his top plays later this morning.
Josh Appelbaum will file his Sharp Report on today’s games.
>Makinen’s power ratings with estimated scores
Listen now: Greg’s daily podcast handicapping every game on the menu every day.
Quick Hits
NBA: Zach Cohen‘s Best Bets will be posted later this morning.
NHL: Look for Jonathan Davis‘ picks later today.
Horse Racing: 1/ST BET handicapper Jeremy Plonk has his top plays for today’s Gulfstream card.
This is The VSiN Daily newsletter for Thursday, February 6. Sign up for this free email and get picks and insights delivered to your in-box every morning.
