Tuley’s Take on Thursday Night Football
Can Dave “Dog or Pass” Tuley resist the underdog Broncos vs. the host Chargers on Thursday Night Football (8:15 ET, Amazon)?
Yes, he can. Sorta.
The Broncos (9-5) and Chargers (8-6) aren’t going to catch the Chiefs in the division race, but they’re currently solidly in the AFC wild-card slots. The Chargers won the first meeting 23-16 in Denver after building a 20-0 halftime lead and coasting in the second half, but the Broncos are 6-2 since that loss, and I expect this to be closer throughout.
I’m not willing to take Denver ATS at such a low spread, but I love that we can kick off our “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio” like we did last week with the Rams. We’ll tease the Broncos through the key numbers of 3 and 7 to +8.5 and use them as the first leg of 2-team, 6-point teasers with our other Week 16 recommended dogs in the “teaser zone”: Seahawks +9 vs. the Vikings and Jaguars +7.5 at the Raiders. For those who like our chalk teaser options, this week’s plays would be the Bengals -1.5 vs. the Browns and Falcons -2.5 vs. the Giants.
>Tuley’s Takes on every Week 16 game.
Zach Cohen has our official betting preview.
My New Year’s resolution is to use AI to improve my productivity. So I ran Steve Makinen’s Week 16 Analytics Report through Gemini and asked for its Best Bet. The answer:
Under 42: This seems like the stronger play based on the confluence of Under trends for both teams, the DK Betting Splits system, and primetime trends.
Other TNF resources
>Check later this morning for Josh Appelbaum‘s NFL Sharp Report.
>Matchup page: ATS records and advanced stats.
>DraftKings/Circa Betting Splits
>Prop Analyzer: And tune in today for VSiN’s human prop analyzer, John Hansen, host of Prop Points (2-3 p.m. ET).
>Injury Report: Broncos CB Patrick Surtain (ankle) will play, but CB Riley Moss (knee) is out.
>NFL picks page (for VSiN Pro subscribers).
QB updates: Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (ankle) practiced again Wednesday. . . . So did Seahawks QB Geno Smith (knee), although RB Zach Charbonnet (oblique) did not. . . . Nor did Bucs QB Baker Mayfield (knee). . . . Titans QB Will Levis was benched in favor of Mason Rudolph.
Everything we do on Week 16 is posted here, including Mitch Moss‘ lookahead to Week 17 lines.
New Orleans Bowl predictions
Adam Burke makes the case for the dog in tonight’s New Orleans Bowl featuring Georgia Southern vs. Sam Houston State (7 ET, ESPN2).
Gary Cotton has the VSiN Fan Bowl Pick, presented by Omaha Steaks:
The Eagles come into this game with 3 straight wins, and a schedule that includes wins over 4 Bowl teams (Marshall, South Alabama, Coastal Carolina, James Madison) in 2024. They also finished with an 8-3-1 ATS record. Sam Houston (6-6 ATS) enters with an interim HC and are just 6-12 SU in bowl games since ’19. The Bearkats have also been hit extremely hard with portal opt-outs.They have 12 guys that have entered, including four RBs, led by leading rusher Jay Ducker. Compared to only 2 opt-outs (both backups) for the Eagles. Pick: Georgia Southern -6. (Hopefully, he waited to get -4.5.)
More on Gary: I am a 50-year-old government retiree here in Grove City, Ohio….I have been listening to VSIN since Day 1 in 2017..First on Sirius and now that I am retired, I watch throughout the day with my RTN subscription. I have been friends with Dave Tuley for over 25 years now and once he joined your group, it just strengthened my love for the network. I always thought that I was an “ok” handicapper, but since retiring last year and really immersing myself with all of your programs, this has been the best year of gambling in my life.
Thanks to Omaha Steaks, I’m sending Gary a gift certificate worth more than $275.
Send me your pick with an explanation for one of the bowl or CFP games through Dec. 24. If I pick your pick, the Omaha Steaks are coming your way.
(If you don’t want to submit your pick but Omaha Steaks sound good, you can get $30 off your next order and 50% off sitewide. Visit omahasteaks.com/VSIN and enter the code VSIN30 to get this limited-time offer. Minimum purchase may apply.)
Fan Bowl Preview Record: 3-0 as the Mike Iavasile had the Under 51 in the Boca Raton Bowl and UNLV (-3) covered for Steve Cohen
Other bowl resources
>Makinen has posted picks for upcoming CFP and bowl games, including this one.
>All of our bowl previews will be posted here.
>Matchup page: ATS records, advanced stats and Makinen’s estimated scores.
>DraftKings/Circa Betting Splits.
>Get your VSiN College Football Playoff Betting Guide. There are 27 pages of previews, picks and predictions. Plus Brent Musburger and Steve Makinen pick a side and total for every bowl game. Download the PDF here.
>CFB Picks page with plays from hosts and their guests.
Today in college basketball
Greg Peterson has posted his Best Bets for today’s menu.
>Adam Burke‘s top plays will be up later today.
Quick Hits
NBA: Zach Cohen will post his Best Bets by mid-morning.
NHL: Look for Jonathan Davis‘ picks by mid-day on our NHL page.
Horse Racing: 1/ST Bet handicapper Jeremy Plonk has picks for Turfway Park.
This is The VSiN Daily newsletter for Thursday, December 19. Sign up for this free email and get picks and insights delivered to your in-box every morning.
