NFC North Showdown
There is just one game on today’s final regular-season menu where we know exactly what both teams’ motivations are.
Matt Youmans sets up tonight’s Vikings-Lions matchup (8:20 ET, NBC):
The stakes are high in the regular-season finale between these 14-2 teams, so the atmosphere in Detroit will be electric. With the NFC North on the line, the winner gets the conference’s No. 1 seed and the loser falls all the way to No. 5. The Lions took the first meeting 31-29 in Week 7, when Jared Goff completed 22 of 25 passes for 280 yards and two touchdowns. Goff outplayed Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold the first time around, but the rematch could be a different story if Detroit’s injury-riddled defense doesn’t get its disturbing act together. The Lions allowed 475 total yards, including 377 passing yards to Brock Purdy, in a 40-34 win at San Francisco on Monday. Darnold and wideout Justin Jefferson should put up big numbers, but Darnold needs to avoid the costly interceptions that doomed Purdy and the 49ers. I can’t blame anyone who’s backing the Lions with their home-field advantage, but I’m taking the superior defense and the points.
Best Bet: Vikings +3
Zach Cohen previews the game:
Linebacker Alex Anzalone is coming back for the Lions. That’s a big boost to the defense. But this is still a Detroit team that is missing several key starters, and Anzalone can’t mask the group’s deficiencies alone. That’s especially true against an elite play caller like Kevin O’Connell. This Minnesota offense has really been rolling lately, as the Vikings are ninth in the league in EPA per play (0.095) since Week 10.
>More analysis and a top prop from Zach.
Another intriguing aspect of this game: The Total of 56 (Circa) and 56.5 (DraftKings) is the highest of the regular season.
Steve Makinen has an opinion on this wager:
For as well as both the Vikings and Lions offenses have been playing, I was still a bit taken aback to see this total get released so high in such an important game. Minnesota’s defense has played very well lately. Though banged up, the Detroit defense has played very well on occasion. I don’t think either of these coaches wants to get into a game that winds up in the 30s or higher for both. My initial projections for this game by my effective and bettors’ ratings pegged the total at 52.3 and 53.0, respectively. In fact, I don’t think I’ve had a game off by that much all year on those ratings. Who is right, me or those behind the counter?
VSiN Pro subscribers have access to all the all the NFL Picks made by hosts and guests throughout the week. Let’s see what we have on this game.
Vikings +3
Matt Youmans
Stormy Buonantony
Geoff Schwartz
Chris Fallica
Chuck Edel
Zachary Cohen
Bill Krackomberger
Scott Pritchard
Weston Stradtman
Bill Krackomberger
Scott Pritchard
Weston Stradtman
Bill Krackomberger
Scott Pritchard
Weston Stradtman
Chris Macero
Vikings +2.5
Erik Coleman
Adam Schein
Lions -2.5
Ryan Leaf
Joe Ceraulo
Total
Paul Bovi : Vikings at Lions – OVER (56)
Weston Stradtman : Vikings at Lions – UNDER (56)
Props
Zachary Cohen: Jordan Addison (Vikings) Anytime TD (+129)
John Hansen : Jared Goff (Lions) OVER 274.5 Passing Yards (-115)
John Hansen: TJ Hockenson (Vikings) OVER 4.5 Receptions (+105)
John Hansen: Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) OVER 34.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
John Hansen: Jalen Nailor (Vikings) OVER 12.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Erik Coleman: Sam Darnold (Vikings) OVER 1.5 Passing TD (-110)
More Week 18 resources
>Look for Josh Appelbaum‘s Sharp Report later this morning.
>Who’s starting at QB in Week 18.
>DraftKings/Circa Betting Splits: At the top of this section, the chart shows a comparison of the betting splits from DraftKings and Circa Sports. Keep an eye on them this morning for late action.
Everything we post on Week 18 is here, including more Best Bets columns
Contest drama on final day
The Quest for $14.2 Million comes down to one last pick for the 18 remaining entries in Circa Survivor.
The Falcons are the top pick with eight entries riding on them, followed by the Bucs (5), Packers (2), Colts (2) and Cardinals (1).
In the Circa Million, the most popular selections were Bengals (-2) 1,865, Bucs (-13.5) 1,674, Lions (-2.5) 1,495, Chiefs (+10.5) 1,469 and Commanders (-5) 1,391.
>Go to our Circa contest resources page for individual picks, plus the updated standings and picks for the Circa Friday Football Invitational and our Average Joe Contest. Chuck Edel clinched the Football Invitational contest with a 2-0 start on Saturday.
Today in college basketball
Greg Peterson has posted his Best Bets for today’s menu.
Adam Burke will have his top plays later this morning.
Quick Hits
NBA: Zach Cohen will post his Best Bets by mid-morning.
Horse Racing: “Mr. Ed” Sehon has posted picks for today. So has 1/ST BET handicapper Jeff Siegel. 1/ST Bet offers wagering on hundreds of races every day from across the country and around the world. Sign up at 1STBET.COM with promo code VSIN200 to claim a 20% rebate for your first 60 days, up to $200.
This is The VSiN Daily newsletter for Sunday, January 5. Sign up for this free email and get picks and insights delivered to your in-box every morning.
